Title: Evaluating 10 Technology Predictions Six Years On
Written on
In 2016, I ventured to make ten bold predictions regarding the future of technology over the next decade. Now, as we approach the end of that timeframe, it's time to evaluate how these predictions are faring.
Revisiting the Predictions
Prediction Assessment: - Achieved: The milestone has been realized! - Probable: There is over a 75% likelihood of accuracy. - Possible: There is a 25-75% chance of coming true. - At Risk: There is less than a 25% chance of being correct.
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May 2022 Status Update — Top Predictions
#### 1. Wireless Charging Will Achieve WiFi-Like Prevalence
Original Theory (2016): WiFi is ubiquitous, and in ten years, wireless charging will follow suit.
May 2022 Status: At Risk Commentary: Progress in wireless power has stagnated, making widespread adoption seem unlikely in the near term.
#### 2. Tesla Will Surpass All Other Global Auto Manufacturers
Original Theory (2016): Tesla's growth will stem more from battery innovations and infrastructure than from car sales alone.
May 2022 Status: Achieved! Commentary: Tesla's market cap dwarfs that of its competitors, and its growth trajectory remains strong.
#### 3. Autonomous Highway Miles Will Surpass Human-Driven Miles
Original Theory (2016): By 2026, more highway miles will be driven autonomously than by humans.
May 2022 Status: Possible Commentary: While pilot programs are expanding, the timeline for achieving this remains uncertain.
#### 4. Traffic Fatalities Will Decrease by 75%
Original Theory (2016): Enhanced safety features will lead to a significant reduction in traffic-related deaths.
May 2022 Status: At Risk Commentary: Human driving remains prevalent, hindering progress toward this prediction.
#### 5. SpaceX and Blue Origin Will Dominate the Space Economy
Original Theory (2016): These companies will control over 75% of the space travel market.
May 2022 Status: Achieved! Commentary: SpaceX has seen remarkable growth, launching numerous missions and satellites.
#### 6. AI Will Become Indistinguishable from Human Intelligence
Original Theory (2016): AI will advance to a point where it will often surpass human intelligence.
May 2022 Status: Probable Commentary: AI research has accelerated, indicating progress toward this prediction.
#### 7. Virtual Reality Will Replace "Real" Reality for Many
Original Theory (2016): A significant portion of the population will use VR as an escape from reality.
May 2022 Status: Probable Commentary: VR adoption is increasing, especially during the pandemic, suggesting this prediction may hold.
#### 8. Drones Will Handle Over 25% of U.S. Deliveries
Original Theory (2016): Drones will significantly replace traditional delivery methods.
May 2022 Status: At Risk Commentary: While testing continues, scalability remains an issue.
#### 9. 3D Printing Will Not Achieve Mass Consumer Adoption
Original Theory (2016): The technology will remain niche and won’t gain widespread consumer use.
May 2022 Status: Probable Commentary: While useful in specific sectors, 3D printing is unlikely to become mainstream.
#### 10. A Major Cancer Type Will Be "Cured"
Original Theory (2016): Advances in treatment will lead to a 100% cure rate for at least one cancer type by 2026.
May 2022 Status: Possible Commentary: Progress in cancer research is slow, making this outcome uncertain.
What Are Your Predictions?
I welcome your thoughts on these predictions—what do you agree or disagree with? Connect with me on Twitter @amitch5903!
More Insights from Alex Mitchell
For additional content, check out my other articles on Medium.
Originally published at https://themodernproductmanager.com on May 21, 2022.