AI Advancements

Artificial intelligence has indeed experienced two periods of stagnation, or "winters," during the 1970s and 1990s, when it struggled to produce practical applications. However, the current wave of AI technologies, such as ChatGPT and large language models (LLMs), is proving to be exceptionally beneficial. Consider the innovative features emerging in software like Adobe Photoshop and the programming capabilities of models like GPT.

For the first time, these LLMs encapsulate significant aspects of human intelligence in non-biological entities. Anyone who underestimates GPT's utility is likely influenced by a few vocal critics who focus on its past shortcomings, particularly the issue of "hallucination," which has largely been addressed. When provided with accurate data in their prompts, LLMs demonstrate reliable processing abilities.

In the near future, AI will expand beyond text generation. Technologies like Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) systems, which rely on affordable camera-based navigation instead of costly LIDAR, will pave the way for autonomous agents capable of making decisions. Robots and androids utilizing these advancements will assist humanity in diverse areas, including agriculture, environmental restoration, manufacturing, and healthcare.

The rapid deployment of AI applications has the potential to significantly boost sustainable GDP by 2 to 20 times over the next couple of decades—assuming we avoid global conflicts or severe dystopian scenarios.

Green Technology Revolution

We once believed that the future would be dominated by costly green technologies, but the reality is quite the opposite. This revelation is monumental, yet many remain unaware, with only a select group of environmentalists, technologists, and industrialists grasping the implications. Green technology has not only achieved parity in pricing but is now cheaper than fossil fuels.

In fact, it is projected that within ten years, renewable energy sources will provide electricity at rates 3 to 4 times lower than traditional fossil fuel-based systems. This shift will primarily be driven by private investments rather than governmental initiatives, as companies stand to gain profits over the long term.

However, governments must remain vigilant in two key areas:

1. Fostering Competition: It is essential to ensure that green energy providers not only supply renewable energy but also engage in genuine competition. They must have realistic roadmaps to offer power at one-third to one-quarter of current prices within the next 10 to 15 years, keeping pace with technological advancements and efficient scaling. Failure to monitor this could lead to inefficiencies and price gouging by unqualified players.
2. Enhancing Transmission: We will need to substantially increase our electricity transmission capacity, as the transition to electrification—including heating through ducted reverse cycle heat pumps—will result in a demand for 3 to 4 times more electricity than we consume today.

Reusable Space Exploration

The advent of fully reusable space travel is another groundbreaking achievement on the horizon, primarily driven by SpaceX. This innovative company has already reduced launch costs to 20 to 40 percent of previous rates, depending on how much savings are passed on. Their internal Starlink missions may even reach prices five times lower. The overall launch industry is already facing disruption.

With the Starship preparing for its second orbital flight, the prospect of achieving 1000-fold reductions in space access costs is astonishingly close. This advancement could facilitate efficient asteroid tracking, realistic interception, as well as in-orbit solar power generation, and pave the way for scientific exploration and bases on the Moon and Mars.