THE MEGADROUGHT SERIES 2022 — PART 7

A Southwest Regional Roundup of the Megadrought

The summer of 2022 has been characterized by overwhelming challenges, with numerous alarming developments and broken records.

As I delve into the megadrought, I sometimes reflect on historical patterns and think, “eventually, we’ll overcome this.” While it may take a century, the planet has a way of healing.

Yet, today’s situation is complicated by human-induced climate change. If we don't act swiftly, we may have to adapt to unprecedented conditions. The pressing question remains: are we capable of doing so?

For the Colorado River, the effects of 23 years of drought, compounded by an increase of 43 million residents since 1950 in the surrounding states, suggest that a swift recovery is unlikely. Thus, for the foreseeable future, Lakes Powell and Mead are unlikely to refill.

This predicament is already unfolding, and soon we might face a critical choice: should we prioritize our drinking water or continue to allocate most of it for agricultural production?

Food or Water?

The snowpacks from the West failed to translate into significant streamflow this past spring. The parched soil simply absorbed whatever moisture was available.

Recent reports indicate that numerous farmers are uprooting their crops in favor of planting agave. While this move might benefit the tequila industry, agave isn't a food source, though it could lead to many indulgent celebrations!

A key issue in the West is the Colorado River and the insufficient water inflow to Lakes Powell and Mead. In 2019, stakeholders in the Colorado River Basin, with the collaboration of the federal government and Mexico, established the Drought Contingency Plan (DCP). This plan sets out three tiers based on the projected water levels of the two reservoirs. As we enter 2023, we are preparing for Tier 2.

Despite the implementation of Tier 1 and limited spring runoff, the lakes continue to decline. To maintain sustainable levels at Lake Mead, a reduction of two to four million acre-feet of water usage from the Colorado River is essential. In June, the Bureau of Reclamation challenged the seven basin states and Mexico to devise a water-saving strategy within six weeks. The initial proposal was deemed insufficient, leading to an indefinite extension. Some experts warn that without decisive leadership from the Bureau, we may face a dire situation where no water flows downstream from Lake Mead, leaving Nevada, California, and Arizona without essential supplies.

NEW MEXICO

On a more positive note, the North American Monsoon developed this year. Just as the Rio Grande was drying up near Albuquerque, rainfall commenced. Although much of it ran off the parched ground, it provided a brief burst of greenery to the desert and instilled hope in southern New Mexico farmers for a fruitful harvest of green chiles or pecans.

However, in the northern regions, the sight of storm clouds filled some with dread.

The Calf Canyon/Hermit’s Peak fire consumed 341,735 acres from April 19 until it was fully contained on August 3. This fire, the largest in New Mexico’s history, devastated an area slightly larger than Los Angeles, destroying 903 structures, including many homes. To date, more than 900,000 acres have burned across the state, a stark contrast to California, where all wildfires combined in 2022 burned only 365,140 acres.

When the monsoon rains began, the absence of vegetation to mitigate runoff on the burned hillsides led to flash floods, carrying debris and wood, which further devastated homes and endangered lives. The ash-laden floodwaters contaminated the Las Vegas (New Mexico) reservoir, threatening the area's drinking supply, which is expected to deplete within 30 days. A similar situation occurred in Flagstaff, where daily flash floods exacerbated by the Pipeline Fire in June caused significant risk, but fortunately, did not affect their water system.

Next, we will explore the other states in the West similarly impacted by the megadrought.

SUMMER OF 2022 OVERVIEW — STATE-BY-STATE

TEXAS

• Texas recorded its second hottest summer at 97.4°. July was the hottest month on record, followed by the hottest May.
• Last year, Texas was 94% drought-free; now, 97% of the state is experiencing some level of drought. Rain ceased in December, with many areas not seeing precipitation until June.
• Dallas endured a 67-day dry spell, the second-longest since 2000, which lasted 85 days. A flash flood on August 21–22 resulted in 10–15 inches of rain across the DFW Metroplex, equivalent to a summer’s worth of rainfall in just one day.
• El Paso typically reaches 100° by June 13, but this year recorded it on May 16. Since 1970, temperatures in El Paso have risen by 5.9°, trailing only Reno and Las Vegas for the highest increases nationwide.
• Recent rains in the Lower Rio Grande Valley alleviated drought conditions, but west-central Texas remains in a critical situation.
• The Texas Panhandle, responsible for a third of the nation’s cotton, is experiencing its worst crop in years. Kody Bessent, CEO of Plains Cotton Growers, described it as "pretty catastrophic." Texas anticipates harvesting only half the cotton produced last year.

ARIZONA

• Arizona faces heightened vulnerability regarding water availability due to its junior rights to Colorado River water. Pinal County has completely lost access, forcing farmers to rely on scarce groundwater, leading many fields to lie fallow. Previously, water was supplied via the Central Arizona Project (CAP).
• The state relies on the Colorado River for one-third of its water through the CAP, and 2022 saw a one-third reduction due to a Tier 1 shortage. With the declaration of a Tier 2 shortage, even greater cuts are set for 2023.
• Arizona and Nevada are set to receive a significant $4 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act. These funds aim to compensate farmers for leaving fields unplanted and support conservation initiatives. Farmers in the Yuma Valley, where a variety of crops like wheat and lettuce are cultivated, are already requesting these funds.
• Several tribal nations have secured water rights and are considering storing their allocated water in aquifers rather than utilizing it from Lake Mead. The Navajo Nation, the largest tribe, has established settlements in the Upper Basin, although many in the Lower Basin have yet to exercise their rights.
• CAP officials argue that the compensation of up to $1,500 per acre-foot for water not used is excessively high. Nonetheless, farmers intend to invest this money in water-efficient irrigation systems and conservation measures.
• In case of scarcity, cities hold the highest priority for river water. Municipalities like Scottsdale, Goodyear, and Tucson rely heavily on river supplies, while Phoenix also has access to water from the Gila and Salt Rivers. Tucson has historically consumed more water than needed, storing excess in aquifers.

In a podcast with the Arizona Republic, Sarah Porter from the Kyl Center for Water Policy at ASU commented on the water crisis:

“It would take a few years of biblically great snowpack and unprecedented precipitation to restore the reservoirs.”

As I’ve only covered three states with a high-level overview, I realize I am already over my intended time. This situation represents just a small segment of a global issue, but it's our issue. We will continue next week with a closer examination of California, Nevada, and the two lakes.

Food or Water?

Which would you prefer? Hope alone isn't a solution, and our time is running out.

Sources:

• El Paso Times, 5/17/2022
• “In Arizona, worry about access to Colorado River water” by Tony Davis in the Arizona Daily Star, 9/13/2022
• “Drought in Western U.S. heats up as a Senate campaign issue” by Gabe Stern in the Arizona Daily Star, 9/20/2022
• “State of unease: Colorado basin tribes without water rights” by Felicia Fonseca, Associated Press, 9/15/2022
• “Dwindling Colorado River basin key to New Mexico Agriculture” by Scott Wyland, AP/Albuquerque Journal, 9/18/2022

For an overview of the Colorado River crisis, please refer to the following articles:

• The American West: Long on People, Short on Water
  • Part 4A: As the Colorado River Goes, So Goes The West
• Water Crisis In The West, v5.0 — The Colorado River Story
  • It’s Happening Faster Than I Can Write About It

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