Indigenous families from Gardi Sugdub, an island in the San Blas archipelago, have begun the arduous process of relocating to the mainland. They moved their stoves, gas tanks, mattresses, and other possessions by boat and truck, leaving behind their island lives for an uncertain future on land.

The newly built homes in Isberyala, constructed on what was once a yucca field along Panama’s Caribbean coast, now stand ready for these families. Overnight, they have exchanged their island existence for a life surrounded by the tropical rainforest, experiencing a transition marked by cooler temperatures and spacious, albeit empty, streets.

Yet amidst these changes, a profound sense of loss lingers. The families have deep roots in a culture shaped by the sea and tourism, and the ocean, once just steps away, is now a 30-minute walk and a brief boat ride away.

While many families are moving to Isberyala, a few have chosen to remain for the time being, waiting until it becomes unsafe to stay. The reality is stark: their island is sinking beneath rising sea levels.

Gardi Sugdub is one of 50 inhabited islands in the Guna Yala archipelago, measuring just 366 meters long and 137 meters wide. Viewed from above, it appears as a cluster of docks and boats resembling colorful Lego blocks. Unfortunately, the encroaching sea has increasingly invaded homes and streets, particularly during the windy months of November and December. Climate change has exacerbated this problem, with rising sea levels and warmer oceans intensifying storms. Despite attempts to protect the island using rocks and pilings, the sea continues its relentless advance.

The families now await concrete homes built on a grid of streets carved from the jungle, located just over a mile from the port and an eight-minute boat ride from Gardi Sugdub. However, leaving behind a life by the ocean, sustained by tourism for over two centuries, will be challenging.

“We're a little sad because we’re leaving behind the homes we’ve known all our lives, our connection to the sea, where we fish, bathe, and welcome tourists. But the sea is slowly sinking the island,” shared Nadín Morales.

Steven Paton, who directs the Smithsonian Institution’s physical monitoring program in Panama, emphasized that this relocation is a direct consequence of climate change and rising sea levels. “On average, the islands are only half a meter above sea level. Eventually, the Gunas will likely need to abandon all of the islands, probably by the end of the century or sooner. This phenomenon is affecting coastlines globally at different rates,” he explained.

According to a recent study from Panama’s Environmental Ministry’s Climate Change directorate, by 2050, Panama could lose approximately 2.01% of its coastal territory due to rising sea levels, potentially displacing around 38,000 residents at an estimated cost of $1.2 billion. Other research, such as a study by Reguero et al in PLOS-ONE, supports these findings regarding coastal erosion.

In a contrasting narrative, climate change has also impacted the Panama Canal, causing severe drought. Opened in 1914, the Panama Canal is a vital global shipping route, connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and facilitating 14,000 ships annually—approximately 5% of global maritime trade. Utilizing the canal saves around 13,000 kilometers compared to navigating around South America. The tolls collected contribute over $2.5 billion to Panama’s economy each year.

Despite being one of the world’s wettest countries, Panama has faced a drastic reduction in rainfall in 2023, which was not only the hottest year on record but also the third driest, with rainfall 30% below average. This has caused water levels in Gatún Lake, a crucial component of the canal and a primary freshwater source for more than half of Panama’s population, to plummet.

The lake, situated about 26 meters above sea level, is essential for the canal's operation. Ships must navigate through a series of locks that raise them to the lake level before lowering them back to sea level on the other side. Each ship's passage consumes about 200 million liters of fresh water, enough to supply drinking water for over 250,000 people for a year, most of which ultimately ends up in the sea.

To conserve this precious resource, authorities have limited shipping through the canal, resulting in significant delays. Typically, the canal accommodates 36 transits daily; however, due to falling lake levels, this was reduced to only 25 crossings per day by November 2023, causing disruptions in global trade.

From bananas to poultry and other goods, shipping traffic has doubled as vessels wait weeks to cross the canal, with some paying millions to expedite their transit.