On June 8, 2002, an unattended campfire in Pike National Forest, Colorado, sparked a catastrophic wildfire. The flames rapidly spread to dry vegetation and towering pines, fueled by extreme drought, unprecedented heat, and strong winds, resulting in a massive 138,000-acre fire known as the Hayman Fire.

During the blaze, Colorado’s then-Governor Bill Owens remarked, “It looks as if all of Colorado is burning today.” The fire devastated the landscape, destroying thousands of trees, 600 structures, and 133 homes, leading to the evacuation of over 5,000 residents. The smoke from the fire was visible nearly 200 miles away, causing significant air quality issues, including the tragic death of a resident from an asthma attack linked to airborne particles. The Hayman Fire raged for over a month, consuming everything in its path: flora, fauna, soil, and human settlements.

After the flames subsided, heavy rains washed away ash and debris into local water sources, leading to long-term pollution in Denver's drinking water. The area left behind was a barren landscape of charred earth and blackened trees.

For years, the Hayman Fire held the record as the largest wildfire in Colorado’s history until it was eclipsed in 2020 by several other significant fires, including the Pine Gulch Fire and the Mullen Fire. That year, over 700,000 acres burned across Colorado, including fires that extended into December, a time previously thought to be outside the state's typical fire season. In fact, more land was scorched in 2020 than all the wildfires combined from the 1960s through the 1990s.

The events of 2020 were not sudden occurrences; they were the result of years of evolving climate patterns and environmental changes.

The trend of escalating wildfires can be traced back to the late 18th century, when humans began extensively burning fossil fuels, releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat, creating a “greenhouse effect” that raises Earth’s temperature.

In 1750, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were stable at 280 parts per million (ppm), but by 2020, they soared to 412.5 ppm, accompanying a temperature increase of about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. The warming trend continues, with significant greenhouse gas emissions since 1975 and two-thirds of global warming occurring in the last fifty years.

North America has warmed significantly, with Colorado experiencing record temperatures, particularly in August 2020, when the state recorded its hottest month ever.

Drought conditions also worsened, with 94% of Colorado experiencing dry spells in August 2020. This combination of extreme heat and lack of moisture set the stage for devastating wildfires.

Looking ahead, projections indicate that by 2050, Colorado’s climate may warm by 2.5 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit, escalating wildfire risks and drought conditions. Should temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius globally, the western United States could see a two to six-fold increase in annual land burned by wildfires.

Furthermore, by the century's end, there is an 80% chance of a "megadrought" lasting over twenty years affecting the western U.S.

As the atmosphere dries, vapor pressure deficits (VPD) increase, leading to drier conditions in soil and vegetation. This trend has been escalating since the late 1970s, particularly in the southwestern U.S., which has shown heightened sensitivity to temperature increases. VPD levels in 2020 were at record highs, suggesting a continued rise as temperatures increase, potentially leading to more frequent and severe wildfires.

In early 2020, an unusually warm spring expedited snowmelt, reducing Colorado’s snowpack to 70% of its historical average by June. This early melt deprives ecosystems of essential moisture, raising the risk of wildfires.

Data shows that a significant portion of North American wildfires from 1970 to 2012 occurred after unseasonably warm, dry springs. The 700,000 acres burned in Colorado in 2020 fit this pattern.

Thus, warmer springs and hotter summers contribute to prolonged fire seasons. Since the 1970s, Colorado’s fire season has expanded by 84 days, with a notable portion of the 2020 fires occurring in late months traditionally seen as safe from wildfire threats.

A historical perspective reveals a stark contrast: prior to European settlement, wildfires in the West were generally low-intensity events, while modern fires often consume thousands of acres. In 2020, 80 wildfires ignited in Colorado, many exceeding 1,000 acres, with four of the largest burning over 100,000 acres each.

Human activity has significantly influenced this wildfire dynamic. Decades of fire suppression and forest mismanagement have led to unnaturally dense forests, providing abundant fuel for wildfires.

Historically, Colorado’s ponderosa pine forests experienced low-intensity burns every decade, maintaining ecological health. However, post-settlement logging drastically altered forest composition, resulting in denser growth patterns and increased fuel loads.

Research indicates that today’s forests are nearly five times denser than pre-European settlement, which contributes to the severity of wildfires like the Hayman Fire and the record-breaking fires of 2020.

Wildfires, when allowed to burn naturally, play a crucial role in maintaining healthy ecosystems. They recycle nutrients, support biodiversity, and help manage fuel loads, preventing more severe fires.

However, for over a century and a half, Colorado's forests have been denied the opportunity to burn under natural conditions. As a result, climate change, rising temperatures, and increased drought have led to more intense wildfires, consuming vast areas of land. In 1988, about 5 million acres burned across the U.S., while in 2020, nearly 60,000 wildfires scorched 10 million acres.

This trend is expected to double by 2050.

Note: This article is adapted from my book, The Trail to Nowhere: Life and Death Along the Colorado Trail, available for pre-order and set to be published on August 24. I will share more excerpts here on Medium and in my newsletter, Miscellanea. Thank you for reading.