Panels, Not Fences!

What:

Solar panels are now more affordable than plastic fencing and come with longer warranties.

Who:

Jesse Peltan on X.

Why:

Intense competition among solar panel manufacturers is driving prices down while enhancing efficiency and warranty periods.

Context:

Refer to Figures 2 and 3 for additional context. Figure 2 illustrates the efficiency improvements for silicon solar panels, which are the predominant technology.

While Figure 1 concludes in 2022, projections indicate prices will drop to $0.10 by the end of 2024. Figure 2 also reflects efficiency gains for silicon solar panels.

This trend has persisted for decades, with silicon solar panels nearing their optimal theoretical efficiency, necessitating a shift to alternative technologies. However, there is still potential for slight efficiency improvements in current silicon panels, alongside continued price declines.

The ongoing competition among Chinese manufacturers is a key factor in price reductions. Larger companies are selling at lower prices to secure market share, often at the expense of smaller firms. As smaller businesses face bankruptcy, the market is likely to consolidate around a few major players, which may eventually lead to price increases. Meanwhile, production is increasingly centralized in China, causing difficulties for the solar industry in other nations.

The United States and EU are grappling with this challenge and are attempting to bolster local industries, though they are uncertain about the best approach. Some believe that continuous price drops are essential for accelerating the energy transition.

Conversely, ensuring supply chain security is becoming crucial, as geopolitical tensions are taking precedence over immediate economic benefits. The Chinese government has leveraged its dominance in rare earth mining and refining to exert geopolitical influence in the past. Should the EU and US lose their manufacturing capabilities, they would become entirely reliant on China for solar panel supplies.

This would give China control over the pricing of solar panels, which could significantly impact future energy costs. The economic rivalry between China and the West in the renewable energy sector encompasses solar panels, batteries, and rare earth minerals. The West recognizes its lagging position and is keen to catch up.

Electric vehicles (EVs) exemplify this dynamic: Honda and Nissan are collaborating on EV development, as are Renault and Volkswagen. Renault's CEO has proposed a joint effort among all European car manufacturers, akin to Airbus, for EV production, a sentiment echoed by Japanese automakers.

Solar panel manufacturing is just one aspect of this broader economic conflict. Historically, wars have spurred technological advancement, and this situation may similarly drive innovation.

Currently, with prices at record lows, individual consumers can utilize solar panels as alternatives to fences or as cladding for buildings. In the future, we may see a scenario where every surface generates electricity.

Explore related topics: - Cars equipped with solar panels - Clothing integrated with solar technology - Indoor solar energy solutions (indoor photovoltaics) - Democratic nations responding to China's control of vital materials

Oman, I Want My Place in the Sun

What:

A $1.3 billion polysilicon facility is set to begin construction in Oman, expected to be the largest in the Middle East.

Who:

There is some confusion regarding whether the project is led by Oman-based United Solar Holding or United Solar Polysilicon.

Why:

The goal is to manufacture 100,000 tonnes of processed silicon.

Context:

Oman, a small Persian Gulf nation, plays a significant diplomatic role in the region, maintaining relationships with the US, China, India, Russia, and Iran while facilitating negotiations among them. Like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Oman is working towards a post-fossil fuel economy, a necessary shift given that 67% of its revenue comes from oil and natural gas sales. With a relatively modest wealth fund of $43 billion and substantial external debt, Oman is exploring strategies to diversify its economy.

In addition to developing cities akin to Dubai or Saudi Arabia, Oman has a vision for green hydrogen production that will require gigawatts of solar power. The nation aims to manufacture some of this solar capacity, starting with polysilicon production. Another local firm, Green Ferro Alloy, is also planning to establish a polysilicon facility.

Details regarding the entities responsible for these projects remain unclear, as I could not find much information on United Solar Holding or United Solar Polysilicon beyond the announcement of the plant. In contrast, Green Ferro Alloy has a presence online, though information about their personnel is limited.

Despite the lack of clarity, Oman's investment in this segment of the solar panel supply chain seeks to leverage its rich mineral resources. The country has reserves of copper, chromite, chromium, aluminum, gold, ferrochrome, cobalt, iron, and zinc—all essential for manufacturing solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electrical grids.

Additionally, Oman's strategic position on the Arabian Peninsula, facing the Indian Ocean, enhances its potential as a logistics hub, especially if the Strait of Hormuz faces blockages. The country also offers favorable conditions for solar energy generation, aiming to produce low-cost electricity for polysilicon and green hydrogen production and export.

In the future, Oman may provide competition to China in the polysilicon market, given its superior solar irradiation compared to even the Gobi Desert.

Microwave Natural Gas

What:

A £3 million award has been granted to a company.

Who:

The recipient is the UK-based firm Suiso.

Why:

The funding will be used to create generators the size of shipping containers, capable of producing 1,000 liters of hydrogen daily, which equates to 1.6 MW of energy.

Context:

This news presents an intriguing development. Suiso has invented a process that utilizes microwaves to convert natural gas (methane) into hydrogen using renewable energy. The UK government's BEIS has reviewed this technology favorably.

According to Suiso, their method achieves over a 97% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to traditional steam methane reforming (grey hydrogen) while consuming 80% less energy than electrolysis. The process resembles low-temperature pyrolysis, yielding hydrogen and black carbon—both commercially valuable products.

In terms of hydrogen categorization, this process is akin to turquoise hydrogen but operates with lower energy requirements. Suiso's technology is compact, aiming to supply hydrogen to hospitals, industrial facilities, or refueling stations without relying on trucking or pipeline transport.

The key question is the viability of this technology as the world moves towards decarbonization and natural gas resources diminish. Landfills generate natural gas, and converting it to hydrogen to power fuel cells while producing black carbon offers a solution to manage methane emissions.

However, I can't help but wonder.

While the technology is portable and compact, it requires both methane and electricity. The seemingly straightforward deployment suggested by shipping containers depends on reliable methane supply logistics.

The future price and availability of biomethane will significantly influence feasibility. Hydrogen production is most efficient when power is inexpensive. Situations may arise where methane is accessible but electricity costs are prohibitive, leading to the need for storage solutions.

Conversely, there may be times when electricity is affordable, but methane is unavailable, necessitating connection to a pipeline, which undermines the transport convenience promised by container units.

When hydrogen generation occurs, additional storage will be needed, along with energy for compression or liquefaction. Black carbon will also require storage until utilized.

This technology lowers hydrogen transportation costs, but introduces new expenses related to the storage and transport of methane and black carbon.

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