The Water Crisis: Understanding the Megadrought in the American West
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Chapter 1: The Emergence of the Crisis
For the past twenty years, extensive regions of the American West have been gripped by intense heat and drought. This environmental catastrophe began to unfold around the year 2000, gradually escalating until society recognized a stark truth: ‘water is essential for life, yet there is no longer enough available.’ States like California, Arizona, Nevada, and several others now confront the difficult choice of either negotiating reductions in water usage or allowing the federal government to intervene in the allocation of this precious resource.
While many discussions around this megadrought attribute blame to climate change, this perspective is only partially accurate. Indeed, climate change is a significant factor, but natural weather cycles have also played a crucial role in this ongoing situation.
Section 1.1: The Colorado River's Role
At the center of this disheartening narrative is the Colorado River, which stretches 1,450 miles from its source in the Rocky Mountains to the Gulf of California. Historically, over a century ago, the river discharged approximately 22,500 cubic feet per second. Today, however, its flow has diminished drastically, with water failing to reach its ultimate destination. In fact, the river's total water flow has decreased by 20 percent in the last century. If current trends continue, this discharge could potentially shrink by another 25 percent by the mid-21st century.
The Colorado River supports around 40 million individuals, providing water incrementally. It also irrigates 5.5 million acres of farmland and generates 4,200 megawatts of hydroelectric power. Water-storage facilities along the river, including those designated for hydroelectric generation, can hold up to four years' worth of average annual flow, acting as a stabilizing influence. Yet, the demands placed on the river now exceed its available capacity, impacting six major urban areas: Denver, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Diego.
The “Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study,” conducted by the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation, presents intricate scenarios for future water use. However, the overarching conclusion suggests that future water needs appear unattainable under existing plans. With projected demands ranging between 18 and 20 million acre-feet (MAF) annually, contrasted with a long-term average supply of 16 MAF—reduced to as low as 12 MAF in certain years due to the ongoing megadrought—the situation is dire.
In the first video, "Drinking a Lot of Water Will Not Hydrate You," the discussion revolves around misconceptions regarding hydration and the actual requirements of the human body, which could provide valuable insights into understanding water's role in our lives.
Section 1.2: Historical Context
The narrative of megadroughts in the American West extends back approximately 1,200 years, as evidenced by tree-ring analysis. These rings reveal patterns of growth that indicate periods of drought, allowing us to trace back to the 800s when the first recorded megadrought affected the western United States. This prolonged drought foreshadowed subsequent dry periods in the mid-1100s, the 1200s, and the late 1500s, with the late 1200s drought coinciding with the collapse of the Anasazi civilization.
This historical context is particularly relevant as we now find ourselves two decades into another megadrought. Tree-ring data indicates that the previous megadrought concluded before the Pilgrims arrived in 1620. Thus, the establishment and growth of modern America occurred during a time of relatively abundant water resources—albeit within a largely desert landscape. This has led to water management calculations based on a higher water availability than what is typically seen during a megadrought.
Chapter 2: The State of Lake Mead
Situated just 24 miles from the Las Vegas Strip, the Colorado River is obstructed by the Hoover Dam, which was completed in 1935 and subsequently created Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States. Unfortunately, Lake Mead has not been at full capacity since 1983 due to persistent drought and water shortages.
The lake's water levels serve as a crucial indicator of the megadrought's severity. When the water level drops below 1,075 feet, the federal government must declare an official water shortage. At 1,045 feet, California is required to reduce its water allocation. Projections suggest that the lake's water levels may plummet to 1,039 feet by December.
This dire situation conjures images of communities packing their belongings to relocate, as water is fundamental to survival. While the precise outcome of this crisis remains uncertain, it is clear that the trend is unsustainable. Much like a bank account, withdrawing more water than is replenished each year leads to inevitable consequences.
In the second video, "I Drank No Water for 3 Days," the experiment highlights the critical importance of hydration and the physiological impacts of water deprivation, underscoring the necessity of understanding our water needs.
Winners and Losers in Water Allocation
As states consider negotiating water rationing agreements or risk federal intervention, the outcome will inevitably intertwine science with politics. The current water allocation system, established over a century ago, no longer aligns with the realities of sprawling urban areas and valuable agricultural lands.
Negotiations will likely be fraught with challenges, as no party is eager to voluntarily accept significant water cuts. Additionally, an outdated system of senior and junior rights complicates the discourse around water rights. Ultimately, states and water districts face a choice: to reach a consensus that none find agreeable, or to have the federal government impose a solution that all must accept.
Climate Change Implications
Drought can arise from two primary factors: inadequate precipitation or elevated temperatures leading to increased water loss through evapotranspiration. Both scenarios are evident in the American West today. Historically, natural cycles were responsible for megadrought occurrences, but human-induced climate change is exacerbating the situation.
The ongoing megadrought diminishes baseline precipitation levels, while warmer temperatures heighten evapotranspiration, creating a hazardous combination. Global warming has increased average global temperatures by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius over the long term, with the American West experiencing an increase of 1.2 degrees Celsius above the norm. Higher temperatures lead to greater moisture loss, intensifying the drought's effects. Some researchers attribute as much as 50 percent of the current drought's severity to human actions.
Sources: The American West May Be Entering a ‘Megadrought’ Worse Than Any in Historical Record (By Brian Handwerk; Smithsonian Magazine) Megadrought Conditions Not Seen for 400+ Years Have Returned to the West, Scientists Say (By Kevin Stark; KQED) The Southwest is bone dry. Now, a key water source is at risk. (Source: Politico)